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In the context of domestic production capacity, the steel industry can be described as suffering in the winter for too long, but the Ministry of Industry yesterday released the steel industry 2016 profit data, and finally to the industry aware of the pace of spring.

March 1, the Ministry of Industry and Materials Division issued a document shows that in the past 2016, the focus of statistics on iron and steel enterprises to achieve sales of 2.8 trillion yuan, down 1.8%; total profit of 30.378 billion yuan, a loss of 77.938 billion yuan a year earlier, profits An increase of more than 100 billion yuan.

"The estimated 2016 national steel industry, state - owned and private (corporate profits) together will be more than 400 billion," said Zhao Xizai, former vice president of the former metallurgy department and former president of the All - Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce.

Despite the impressive results, it is not worth mentioning the same profits as the four mines (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, FMG), which controls the supply of 70% of the world's iron ore. Data show that the four mines in 2016 net profit of at least 13 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 89.7 billion yuan. Among them, BHP Billiton, FMG is only 2016 second half of the profit data.

This can not help but let us sigh, in the process of experiencing the pain of production capacity, the steel industry's performance has finally improved, but the real money is still the four major mines.

Four mines beat 500 steel companies

According to incomplete statistics, the national coal and steel industry, the number of employees in the 8.5 million or so, in the face of such a large employment crowd, to the difficulty of production can be imagined. But these can not shake our determination to production capacity, held on February 28 of the Central Financial Leading Group at the fifteenth meeting, also once again proposed to further promote the production capacity.

With a firm determination and action, to the production capacity has also achieved great success, the steel industry's profit is gradually improving. "After experiencing price gains and last year's profitability, the profit margins of the steel mills are good at the present stage and tend to increase raw material inventories to lock in existing profit margins." An iron ore supply chain to the daily economic news : Nbdnews) reporter said.

Zhuo record data show that large and medium-sized steel mills have been available from the days of September 2016 19 days or so, rose to 35 days before the Spring Festival, currently maintained at about 30 days level, significantly higher than the year 2016 Average 23 days.

However, the reporter noted that the replenishment means that iron ore to buy, but the current price point of view, the cost of steel mills in the procurement, from the beginning of 2016 to date, has long been different.

Xidong Shinkansen data show that the industry trend of 62% of the benchmark iron ore index, in January 4, 2016 is still 42.7 US dollars / ton, but by December 30, 2016, the index has risen to 79.65 US dollars / ton, Or up to 86.53%.

After entering 2017, the pace of the index did not stop, and on February 21 reached 95.05 US dollars / ton, which is Platts 62% iron ore index 30-month high.

In this regard, a sunshine port iron ore traders to the daily economic news reporter analysis, iron ore soaring, not without basis, soaring behind the downstream steel industry is a strong recovery.

According to the Ministry of Industry on February 17 disclosure of data show that in 2016, the mainland steel industry to achieve profit growth of 2.02 times a year, loss of loss of 51% loss of enterprises, the industry operating conditions greatly improved.

Recently, the former vice minister of the former Metallurgical Department, the president of the Union Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce, said Zhao Xizi, "estimated that in 2016 the national steel industry, state and private (corporate profits) together will be more than 400 billion.

However, the reporter noted that China's total output of steel more than 800 million tons, accounting for 50% of the world. With a less appropriate metaphor, an average of only 5 cents per kilogram of steel.

In fact, from the four major mines announced in 2016 or 2017 fiscal year in the first half of the financial data, China's steel prices last year, more than 400 billion profit, it is not worth mentioning.

February 23, Vale reported that 2016 net profit of $ 3.982 billion, while in 2015, Vale's net loss of $ 12.129 billion, an increase of 16.111 billion US dollars.

And Vale, as from Australia's giant Rio Tinto, also lost last year. Rio Tinto's financial report released on February 8, in one fell swoop in 2016 to achieve profitability, net profit reached $ 4,617 million.

In addition, due to differences in fiscal year, the other two of the four mines also announced their performance in the second half of 2016. Among them, BHP Billiton in the second half of 2016 net profit of $ 3.24 billion, up 687%; the same from Australia's FMG, in the second half of 2016 net profit after tax of $ 1.2 billion.

If the above data is added, the net profit of the four mines in 2016 is at least US $ 13.039 billion, at the latest exchange rate, equivalent to about RMB9.97 billion, without counting the data of BHP Billiton and FMG in the first half of last year.

A market source to the daily economic journalists admitted that the four mines more than 70 percent of the output to the Chinese market, their profits so dazzling, apparently from the cost of domestic steel prices.

Jin Lianchuang market analyst Mi Pengqi to the daily economic journalists bluntly, from a single point of view, the profits of the four mines has been more than twice the domestic industry, "to know the domestic steel prices are not less than 500 ".

Iron ore pricing is missing

In the view of Mi Jinqi, from the 2016 profit data point of view, the domestic steel enterprises to the international mine to work to say, not for, after all, the profits of the two is too poor.

Ministry of Industry on March 1 released data show that iron ore prices rebounded, by the end of 2016, domestic iron ore price of 606 yuan / ton, imports of iron ore powder CIF price of 78 US dollars / ton, compared with the beginning of the year were up 40 % And 88% respectively.

In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Materials Division pointed out that the impact of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry profit margin was only 2.63%, 16 manufacturing sub-sectors in the lowest profit margins of the industry.

However, "the contradiction between supply and demand is not eased, there is an increasing trend, iron ore prices, some contrary to the market normal." After the Spring Festival, to steel enterprises after the investigation, Liu Xinwei have this view.

Earlier, in the context of supply and demand imbalance, iron ore prices since 2011, 191.70 US dollars / ton high point began to fall, by the end of 2015 or even below 40 US dollars / ton, 2016 has been picked up, but the gap is still about 100 US dollars / Ton.

Which makes the industry more concentrated. Public reports show that the four giants of the market share has increased from about 60% to 2016 in 85%. The four mines are located in Australia, Brazil, iron ore production is also a substantial increase.

From 2012 to 2016, Australian iron ore finished mineral production rose from 495 million tons to 810 million tons, an increase of 64%. Brazil iron ore finished mineral production, from 370 million tons rose to 392 million tons, slightly increased by 4.5%.

At the same time, China's iron ore production is declining, finished mineral production from 343 million tons down to 182 million tons, down 47%.

China Iron and Steel Enterprise Association data show that only the first three quarters of 2016 China's iron ore enterprises have withdrawn from the market 780, accounting for the total number of iron ore enterprises 1 / 3. Since 2012, the domestic iron ore production fell by 47% The

Mi Pengqi analysis to the daily economic journalists, with the fall of China's iron ore corps and the strengthening of the international giants monopoly position, giants to control the iron ore prices to further increase the ability.

The situation may be worse. With the recovery of ore prices, some small mines are also considering the resumption of production. From the latest statistics show that the number of small mines production capacity, the annual increase in iron ore in 2017 about 60 million to 70 million tons.

"Once the mine production is expected, supply and demand contradiction may be more acute, which led to the possibility of falling prices may be greater." Liu Xinwei to reporters.

However, the cost of the four mines, but enough to withstand the iron ore prices dropping. For example, in the four major mines in the highest cost of FMG, its cost in June 2016 fell to 14.31 US dollars / wet tons.

Citigroup said in a report that the bank raised the first half of 2017 iron ore average price forecast, while maintaining the fourth quarter forecast unchanged. However, the bank is expected to iron ore prices in the second half of the "substantial downward callback."